Trump’s Immigration Ban: Will it Undercut American Soft Power?

Activists in Portland, Oregon, protest President Trump’s ban. Clinton Steeds/Reuters
Activists in Portland, Oregon, protest President Trump’s ban. Clinton Steeds/Reuters

Jason Lane, University at Albany, State University of New York

The Trump administration moved over the weekend to ban all immigration from seven Muslim nations, including stopping the entry of students and scholars with valid study and work visas from those countries.

A large number of students come to study in the United States from these nations: Iran ranks 11th on the list of countries that send students to the United States. Iraq and Syria participate in a student leaders program supported by the US-Middle East Partnership Initiative. The program brings students to the U.S. to “expand their understanding of civil society, as well as the democratic process and how both may be applied in their home communities.”

Iraq also has an active Fulbright program – an international exchange program meant to “increase mutual understanding between the people of the United States and the people of other countries by means of educational and cultural exchange.”

As a scholar of international education, I have seen the impact of American higher education abroad. While conducting field research in the United Arab Emirates on development of American branch campuses in the Middle East, I was struck by the response of the residents after George Mason University closed its UAE-based campus in 2009.

The setting up of the university campus was heralded as an expansion of American values overseas, and its closure was viewed as an example of “America withdrawing its support” for the region. I was asked, “Why did America choose to pull out of the region?”

In a region where higher education institutions are largely controlled by the government, it was difficult to explain that it was a decision of a single institution, not of the American government.

The fact is that over the decades America has made considerable investments in building goodwill around the world through higher education exchange efforts. Evident in the responses of the people in UAE was how the action of a single institution could erode those sentiments.

So, what might Trump’s ban mean for the U.S. role in international education? And will it undermine the use of international higher education as a soft power tool for the United States?

A soft power tool?

First, let’s look at the role higher education has played in expanding American influence and in building stronger relationships between nations.

In 1945, Senator William Fulbright from Arkansas sponsored a bill to fund a program to support “international good will through the exchange of students in the fields of education, culture and science.”

A statue of Senator William Fulbright at the University of Arkansas.
Clinton Steeds, CC BY

Today, the Fulbright program is probably the most widely recognized initiative in the world supporting international exchange, facilitating the movement of more than 360,000 students and scholars across more than 160 countries during its history. Its value is more symbolic – it represents the United States’ view about how international education can support democracy and encourage positive relationships between nations.

The free flow of students and scholars has served well the interests of the United States, including students from those with differing ideologies.

One of the most famous alumni of the Fulbright program was Russian student Alexander Yakovlev, who came to the U.S. to study at Columbia University in 1958 – the period of the Cold War. That same person would return to the USSR to become a close ally of Mikhail Gorbachev and eventually become the “father of glasnost,” the political philosophy (along with “Perestroika”) that eventually brought down the Iron Curtain.

More recently, during a standoff between the United States and China over the future of blind Chinese political dissident Chen Guangcheng, New York University stepped in to offer him a visiting scholar position in New York, thereby diffusing a tense situation.

Time and again international education has been a critically important soft power tool.

Students from banned nations

Coming back to international exchange –– it has played a significant role in promoting peaceful relations between nations for decades.

For most of the 1970s, Iran sent more students to the U.S. than any other country. The peak year was 1979-1980, when more than 50,000 Iranian students came to study in the U.S.

After relations between the two nations deteriorated following the fall of the shah of Iran, the number of students coming to the U.S. dropped dramatically, until there were fewer than 1,700 students in 1998-1999. However, in the 2000s, as relations with the two nations began to warm, the trend finally began to turn around, with the number of students more than doubling from 2010 to 2015.

The other nations on the banned list do not have nearly as robust numbers as Iran, yet they do send students to the U.S. Those numbers are growing overall. Both Iraq and Libya have more than 1,000 students currently studying in the U.S. Although other nations send fewer (there are only 35 Somali students) in total, there were more than 17,300 students from the banned countries studying in the U.S. last year.

What is noteworthy is that was a 7 percent increase over the previous year and a more than 300 percent increase from 15 years ago, when there were only about 4,000 students from those same nations. Iran led with more than 1,800 students, and Syria was number two with more than 700.

In fact, more than 10 percent (about 108,000) of the international students in the U.S. come from the Middle East and North Africa regions, the home to most of the banned countries. When they return home, these students serve as ambassadors of the U.S. and, while here, help us gain a greater appreciation for their culture.

Declining enrollments?

How these actions will impact the students is not clear, but we do know that major events can have lasting impact on international education numbers.

For about five years following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the total number of international students studying in the U.S. declined. Much of this decline came from students in Muslim majority nations, who could either not obtain a visa or chose not apply for it. They also feared they would not be welcomed in the United States.

And this was at a time when the American president, George W. Bush, argued that “Ours is a war not against a religion, not against the Muslim faith. But ours is a war against individuals who absolutely hate what America stands for.”

Data have already suggested that the rhetoric of the current administration has weighed on the minds of students considering where to study abroad. A study by international student recruiting companies prior to the election found that 60 percent of the 40,000 students surveyed in 118 countries would be less inclined to come to the U.S. if Trump won the election (compared to only 3.8 percent who would be less inclined if Clinton won). And that was before the rhetoric turned into reality.

Even though the U.S. still retains the largest global market share of international students, that market share has been declining gradually. This is due to the increased competition from other nations and international student concerns about safety, cost and hospitality in the United States: In 2000, about one quarter of all international students globally came to the United States. Within a decade, that number had shrunk to 19 percent, and by 2012, the number had dropped to 16 percent.

Where is this all going?

An early policy paper by the Trump team seemingly called for the elimination of J-1 visas, which allow for international youth to pursue temporary work in the U.S. And the current administration has sent signals indicating that it would make it more difficult for immigrants to receive H-1B visas, awarded to individuals with specialized skills.

Both of these programs are used by universities to support student and scholar exchanges. It is not yet clear if the current administration will pursue policies in these area that will affect universities in the same way the ban has done.

A Temple University student holds up her sign during a protest in Philadelphia.
AP Photo/Corey Perrine

What is clear is that the recent ban has already sent a chilling effect across colleges near and far. Within one day, there were reports of students being trapped overseas and in the U.S. An Iranian Ph.D. student at SUNY Stony Brook was detained at JFK and almost deported.

Another Iranian, pursuing his Ph.D. at Yale, was traveling internationally to conduct research, and feared that he might not be able to return to his studies even though he was a green card holder (the administration subsequently reversed its ban on permanent residents from those nations). There is no telling how many others are blocked from returning having been away on break between semesters.

Protecting our nation is one of the most important roles of the federal government, and we do need to be thoughtful about how to establish effective immigration polices. However, the broad-based nature of the ban flies in the face of decades of support for the power of international exchange. Even a foreign policy hard line approach would typically be softened by an ongoing support of international exchange.

As Senator Fulbright said,

“Educational exchange can turn nations into people, contributing as no other form of communication can to the humanizing of international relations.”

The motivation for this ban is the concern that we might let in a terrorist. But what if we turn away the next great scientist or peacemaker?

The Conversation

Jason Lane, Chair and Professor of Educational Policy and Leadership & Co-Director of the Cross-Border Education Research Team, University at Albany, State University of New York

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Trump’s Immigration Order is Bad Foreign Policy

A rally against President Donald Trump’s order that restricts travel to the U.S. AP Photo/Steven Senne
A rally against President Donald Trump’s order that restricts travel to the U.S. AP Photo/Steven Senne

David FitzGerald, University of California, San Diego and David Cook Martín, Grinnell College

President Donald Trump banned the entry of people from seven majority Muslim countries last week. Leaders as far apart ideologically as former Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. Bernie Sanders warned the ban could become a recruitment tool for terrorists.

In addition, the U.S. risks straining or losing important diplomatic ties and fragile relationships. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and even Theresa May have warned about the geopolitical effects of a ban on immigrants and refugees from predominantly Muslim countries. Iran has already promised to take “reciprocal measures” after Trump’s immigration order, although the exact measures remain to be specified.

 

Just last December, the al-Qaida affiliate in East Africa, Al-Shabab, used footage of Trump’s call for a ban on the entry of Muslims as part of a recruitment film.

Banning immigration from seven majority Muslim countries and selectively admitting Christians is a bad idea for many moral and legal reasons. A long history shows such policies also threaten national security. Our research for the book “Culling the Masses: The Democratic Origins of Racist Immigration Policies in the Americas” shows the perils of policies targeting particular nationalities.

Losing hearts and minds

From the 19th century to 1965, the United States discriminated against various groups. In the 1920s, the U.S. established national origins quotas that set the number of immigrants who were allowed to enter the U.S. from certain countries. These quotas were designed to restrict the entrance of southern and eastern Europeans because nativists like famed eugenecist Harry Laughlin and Senator Henry Cabot Lodge feared the newcomers were likely to be criminals, and even anarchist or Bolshevik terrorists. Anti-Catholic sentiment played a role as well.

The laws kept out Asians altogether on grounds that “no alien ineligible for citizenship shall be admitted to the United States” (43 Stat. 153. Sec. 13 ©). Asians were ineligible for citizenship because of their race. The quotas gave 51,227 of the 164,667 annual spots for immigration to Germans, 3,845 to Italians and zero to Japanese.

Bipartisan coalitions ended this discrimination in large part because it hurt U.S. national security at key moments during World War II and the Cold War.

A presidential commission after World War II found that U.S. exclusion of Japanese immigrants had contributed directly to the growth of Japanese militarism and helped motivate Japan’s attack on the United States in 1941. When the quotas ending Japanese immigration passed in 1924, the press in Japan declared a “National Humiliation Day” to protest the law. Seventeen years later, as the Japanese navy steamed toward Pearl Harbor, Commander Kikuichi Fujita wrote in his diary that it was time to teach the United States a lesson for its behavior, including the exclusion of Japanese immigrants.

During World War II, China became a major ally of the United States. Japan tried to drive a wedge between the Chinese and the Americans by portraying Japan as the defender of Asians against U.S. racism. The fact that the United States had banned Chinese immigration since 1882 through the Chinese Exclusion Act helped make the case. Japanese media in occupied China pointed to the hypocrisy of the Americans, who presented the United States as a friend of the Chinese while banning their entry.

A broad U.S. coalition called for Congress to end Chinese exclusion. President Franklin Roosevelt argued that repeal would “silence the distorted Japanese propaganda” and be “important in the cause of winning the war and of establishing a secure peace.” Congress halted the ban on Chinese naturalization in 1943 and allowed a symbolic annual quota. China remained the key U.S. ally in Asia during the war.

During the Cold War, the quota system posed a new national security problem. The Soviet Union and United States were competing to win the hearts and minds of Asians in battlegrounds like Korea and Vietnam. Radio Moscow’s broadcasts to Asia pointed out that U.S. law continued to treat Asians as inferiors. How could Asians take the side of a country that shunned them?

During the Korean War, Sen. William Benton of Arkansas highlighted the folly of spending billions of dollars and suffering 100,000 U.S. casualties while continuing to restrict the entrance of Koreans. In 1952 he told the Senate:

“We can totally destroy that investment, and can ruthlessly and stupidly destroy faith and respect in our great principles, by enacting laws that, in effect, say to the peoples of the world: ‘We love you, but we love you from afar. We want you but, for God’s sake, stay where you are.’”

By 1956, the Republican and Democratic party platforms both endorsed ending the national origins quotas. Congress finally ended the system in 1965.

Post-9/11

Americans saw the challenge of singling out nationalities again after the 2001 terrorist attacks. The National Security Entry-Exit Registration System (NSEERS) required male citizens of 25 countries who were in the United States on nonimmigrant visas to register with the government. With the exception of North Korea, all of the countries were predominantly Arab or Muslim. More than 1,000 immigrants were detained. None was convicted of terrorism.

Governments in the Middle East and South Asia that had been working with the United States to counter terror were outraged by the harassment of their citizens. It’s hard to work together when one part of the team feels denigrated by the other. The NSEERS program was suspended in 2011 by the Obama administration. Officials concluded that NSEERS had fueled the impression that the United States was hostile to Muslims without stopping criminal acts.

History shows that humiliating national or religious groups on the world stage by restricting their entry makes it harder to keep our allies. It can create new enemies. This ban may put the United States at risk.

The Conversation

David FitzGerald, Theodore E. Gildred Chair in U.S.-Mexican Relations, Professor of Sociology, and Co-Director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San Diego and David Cook Martín, Professor of Sociology and Assistant Vice President of Global Education, Grinnell College

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Theresa May meets Donald Trump: talking up a special relationship to hide problems beneath

Just keep smiling! PA/Stefan Rousseau
Just keep smiling! PA/Stefan Rousseau

Scott Lucas, University of Birmingham

British Prime minister Theresa May faces economic shock if London departs the European Union’s single market after Brexit. She needs the salvation – even if it’s distant and illusory – of a US-UK trade deal. She also needs to burnish the urn of the “special relationship”. This had been tarnished when Trump warmly embraced Nigel Farage, who he suggested would make a good ambassador, before he had a fleeting thought about 10 Downing Street.

Trump, after antagonising and insulting a series of leaders and their countries, was happy for a photo opportunity with someone whose name isn’t Vladimir Putin.

This was the backdrop to May’s first visit to meet newly inaugurated President Trump. She will have had the now-ritual “front of the queue” mantra at the forefront of her mind. She has beseeched the Trump administration for a declaration of negotiations, even if they won’t take place for years. In return, Trump got the prime minister’s nod, smile and her discreet silence on the size of his inaugural crowd.

It was telling how high May was willing to leap to escape Europe for the welcoming shores of the US. “Dawn breaks on a new era of American renewal,” she proclaimed during her speech to the Republican Party conference, as “President Trump’s victory – achieved in defiance of all the pundits and the polls” came from “the hopes and aspirations of working men and women across this land”.

In that same speech, Churchill was invoked not once, twice, nor even thrice, but four times. Inevitably, May referred to his 1946 speech in which “Anglo-Saxon powers” defied the Iron Curtain. Now, again, the US and UK will lead, May declared, and all others will follow.

For this illusion, May was even willing to put aside inconveniences such as Trump’s endorsement of torture (“it absolutely works”). While telling British papers she would ensure Britain did not follow the waterboarding, not a word on the matter made it into her speech – nor did she answer a direct question on the subject from the BBC.

As the two leaders stood together after their initial meeting, Trump declared that the special relationship has been “one of the great forces for justice and peace” over the years. But none of this averts the problems down the road.

Indeed, May – despite carefully-placed references to NATO and a firm line against Russia – has probably stoked a bit more suspicion from Europe by cosying up to a man who thinks NATO is obsolete and Putin is a fine role model. She even pledged to keep working to convince her fellow European leaders to spend more on NATO, claiming to have received assurances that Trump is “100% behind” the defence alliance.

The bump of Brexit departure has in no way been softened by this meeting. European leaders are unlikely to be pleased by the implied meaning in Trump’s assertion that “a free and independent Britain is a blessing to the world” – nor by the very clear message in his view that “Brexit is going to be a wonderful thing for your country”.

Trump, for his part, will soon be beset by agencies who don’t like him, senators (both Democrat and Republican) ready to cut him down, and the burden of constructing a policy that is more than 140 characters.

And, of course, there is the grand deception. The US and UK will daily find that they’re not leading the world – as Trump and May strike their poses, other countries will be making their own arrangements.

But why quibble? This meeting was not about the long road. It was short-term politics to keep eyes off the horizon.

The Conversation

Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Food Security: How Drought and Rising Prices Led to Conflict in Syria

EPA/Russian Defence Ministry Press Service
EPA/Russian Defence Ministry Press Service

 

Aled Jones, Anglia Ruskin University

In 2015 the Welsh singer and activist Charlotte Church was widely ridiculed in the right-wing press and on social media for saying on BBC Question Time that climate change had played an important part in causing the conflict in Syria.

From 2006 until 2011, [Syria] experienced one of the worst droughts in its history, which of course meant that there were water shortages and crops weren’t growing, so there was mass migration from rural areas of Syria into the urban centres, which put on more strain, and made resources scarce etc, which apparently contributed to the conflict there today.

Goaded on by the tabloids, Church reaped a whirlwind of public ridicule:

But what she said was correct – and there will be an increasing convergence of climate, food, economic and political crises in the coming years and decades. We need to better understand the interconnectivity of environmental, economic, geopolitical, societal and technological systems if we are to manage these crises and avoid their worst impacts.

In particular, tipping points exist in both physical and socio-economic systems, including governmental or financial systems. These systems interact in complex ways. Small shocks may have little impact but, a particular shock or set of shocks could tip the system into a new state. This new state could represent a collapse in agriculture or even the fall of a government.

In 2011, Syria became the latest country to experience disruption in a wave of political unrest crossing North Africa and the Middle East. Religious differences, a failure of the ruling regime to tackle unemployment and social injustice and the state of human rights all contributed to a backdrop of social unrest. However, these pressures had existed for years, if not decades.

So was there a trigger for the conflict in the region which worked in tandem with the ongoing social unrest?

Syria, and the surrounding region, has experienced significant depletion in water availability since 2003. In particular an intense drought between 2007 and 2010, alongside poor water management, saw agricultural production collapse and a mass migration from rural areas to city centres. Farmers, who had been relatively wealthy in their rural surroundings now found themselves as the urban poor reliant on food imports. Between 2007 and 2009 Syria increased its annual imports of wheat and meslin (rice flour) by about 1.5m tonnes. That equated to a more than ten-fold increase in importing one of the most basic foods.

Cereal imports by weight and value to Syria from 2006 to 2010. Source: UN Comtrade Database.

Complex system

There is a tendency these days to believe that global trade will protect the world from food production shocks. A small production shock in one region can be mitigated by increasing, temporarily, imports of food or by sourcing food from another region. However, certain shocks, or a set of shocks, could create an amplifying feedback that cascades into a globally significant event.

The food system today is increasingly complex and an impact in land, water, labour or infrastructure could create fragility. A large enough perturbation can lead to a price response in the global market that sends a signal to other producers to increase their output to make up for any shortfall. While increased prices can be beneficial to farmers and food producers, if the price increase is large enough it can have a significant impact on communities that are net food importers.

Additionally, food production is concentrated both in a relatively small handful of commodity crops such as wheat, rice and maize as well as from a relatively small number of regions, for example the US, China and Russia. This concentration means any disruption in those regions will have a large impact on global food supply. Reliance on global markets for sourcing food can therefore be a source of systemic risk.

Rising prices

In 2008 the global price of food increased dramatically. This increase was the result of a complex set of issues including historically low global food stocks, drought in Australia following production lows in several other areas over the previous few years, and speculation and an increase in biofuel production in North America.

This spike in global food price in 2008 was a factor in the initial unrest across North Africa and the Middle East, which became known as the Arab Spring. As prices peaked, violence broke out in countries such as Egypt, Libya and Tunisia.

In Syria a local drought which coincided with this global shock in food prices resulted in dramatic changes in the availability and cost of food. In response small groups of individuals protested. The government response, combined with a background of rising protests, existing social tensions and instability in the wider region, quickly escalated into the situation we are experiencing today.

The events in Syria, then, appear to stem from a far more complex set of pressures, beyond religious tension and government brutality, with its roots in the availability of a natural resource – water – and its impact on food production. This is worrying as decreasing water availability is far from a localised issue – it is a systemic risk across the Middle East and North Africa. Over the coming decades this water security challenge is likely to be further exacerbated by climate change.

To better manage these types of risks in the future, and to build societal resilience, the world needs to understand our society’s interdependence on natural resources and how this can lead to events such as those that unfolded in Syria. We need analytical, statistical, scenario or war game-type models to explore different possible futures and policy strategies for mitigating the risk. By understanding sources of political instability we hope to get a better handle on how these types of crisis arise.

The Conversation

Aled Jones, Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

 

 

 

Six Myths About National Security Intelligence

At CIA headquarters on Jan. 17, Drumpf said the ‘dishonest media’ made it appear he was having a feud with the intel community. Olivier Douliery/AP via CNP
At CIA headquarters on Jan. 17, Drumpf said the ‘dishonest media’ made it appear he was having a feud with the intel community. Olivier Douliery/AP via CNP

Frederic Lemieux, Georgetown University

President Trump has gotten off to a rough start with the intelligence community.

The day after being sworn in, Trump spoke at CIA headquarters in an apparent attempt to mend his relationship with the agency. The relationship was frayed in large part due to Trump’s skepticism about an intelligence assessment that suggested Russia had hacked into the emails of the Democratic National Committee and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Where did this skepticism come from? Trump – along with some security experts – has expressed doubt about the complexity of cyberattack attribution and the reliability of the intelligence sources. This skepticism seems to be fueled by the desire for irrefutable evidence of Russia interference in the election.

At Georgetown University, I study and teach how the intelligence community collects, analyzes and circulates sensitive information to policymakers and elected officials. I’d like to point out some of the misunderstandings about intelligence activities exhibited not only by the new president, but in the media coverage of the Russian interference in the presidential election of 2016.

Correcting these persistent myths is important because they set unrealistic expectations about intelligence production and analysis. These false expectations could damage the credibility of the U.S. intelligence community and its ability to fulfill its mission.

Myth #1: Intelligence and evidence are the same

Intelligence and evidence are starkly different.

Intelligence analysts are tasked with understanding situations that are often multifaceted, forming a judgment about that situation and informing policymakers.

On the other hand, law enforcement investigators produce evidence required to meet legal standards of the burden of proof. In a courtroom, direct proof of a crime – such as DNA, fingerprints, witness testimony or a confession – is the best evidence.

In the intelligence community, analysts have to deal with foreign intelligence agencies and terrorist groups who have the ability to use counterintelligence measures and disinformation campaigns to deceive U.S. intelligence officers and create uncertainty.

It would be unrealistic to expect intelligence agency to always provide “fully proved evidence” in their assessment.

Another reason people are skeptical of intelligence is the lack of explanation on how analysts draw their conclusions.

For example, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declassified a report on Russia’s role in influencing the U.S. election in early January. In response, Robert Graham, an analyst for a cybersecurity firm, told Wired: “Knowing what data they probably have, they could have given us more details. And that really pisses me off.”

Susan Hennessey, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, sent out the following tweet in response to the report.

 

But these criticisms are misguided, in my opinion. The techniques used by the intelligence agencies must be kept secret to avoid revealing U.S. methods and analysis capabilities to our adversaries.

Myth #2: Intelligence can predict the future

Former President Barack Obama has been criticized for not releasing detailed intelligence assessment about the Russian hacks before the election. Some have said that the intelligence community should have warned the public – sooner and more forcefully – about the impact of Russian interference.

But these criticisms can be attributed to 20/20 hindsight and illustrate the myth that intelligence officials can somehow predict the future.

Despite all the technology available to the intelligence community, we are not yet in the scenario of the movie “Minority Report,” in which special units prevent murders seconds before they happen with the help of psychics and visualization technology.

In fact, the intelligence community has had many failures. It failed to foresee the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of the Arab Spring and more recently the invasion of Crimea. The intelligence community could not predict the intensity of Russian interference or how close the election would be.

Here’s what they can do. Intelligence agencies produce what is called “national security estimates” which represent an combination of analysts’ opinions. These are rated on a confidence level scale that varies from “almost no chance” to “almost certain.” The rating is based on the quality of information, depth of analysts’ knowledge on the issue, the credibility and reliability of the sources used to produce the intelligence and the ability to corroborate with other sources.

In other words, intelligence estimates are carefully weighed against rigorous criteria to ensure validity and credibility of the assessment. Even so, intelligence agencies deal with plausible scenarios, not predictions.

Myth #3: Intelligence results from covert operations

Perhaps surprisingly, approximately 80 percent of the intelligence used by security agencies is not secret and does not require covert operations.

Most intelligence is gathered through “open sources intelligence,” like internet content; traditional mass media, including television, radio, newspapers and magazines; specialized journals, conference proceedings and think tank studies; photos; maps and commercial imagery; and publicly accessible databases.

There are two main challenges with “open source intelligence.” Sometimes the information needed isn’t available in digital format, and sometimes it’s not in English.

These limitations may sometimes trigger covert operations. But in the majority of cases, intelligence estimates are rather dry reading that includes little bombshell information.

Myth #4: The intelligence community is mainly composed of spies

Since intelligence requirements can be addressed through open sources, the need for spies is relatively low.

Only about 10 percent of the employees of the CIA are covert operatives.

Ninety percent are analysts, managers, scientists and support staff. The vast majority of intelligence employees work at a desk and often possess high-level expertise in geopolitical issues, history and international relations. Very few play James Bond in a foreign country.

Myth #5: Top secret intelligence is seen by small number of people

In the United States, approximately 5.1 million people have security clearance to handle sensitive information. Among this group, 1.4 million received a “top secret” clearance.

“Top secret” is not the most secret clearance. There are also an unknown number of individuals that carry clearance above “top secret” such as “sensitive compartmental information” and “special access programs.”

Such “crowded intelligence environment” increases the risk that sensitive information gets released intentionally or unintentionally.

Myth #6: Only presidents get presidential daily briefings

During the transition period, President Trump created another precedent by delegating the so-called “presidential daily briefing” to Vice President Mike Pence. While this precedent does mean the intel community is losing a regular appointment with the president, it is not unusual for the presidential daily briefing to be read by other people.

It has been reported that, during the Obama administration, this document was seen by more than 30 people, including senior intelligence analysts, White House senior advisers, department secretaries and selected ranking members of Congress.

Despite the number of reviewers, the intelligence community had daily access to Obama for the briefing – something that, so far, President Trump has withheld from them.

The Conversation

Frederic Lemieux, Professor and Program Director of the Master’s degree in Applied Intelligence, Georgetown University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Why Wall Street’s Dow 20,000 is totally meaningless

2017-01-25_0904

Jay L. Zagorsky, The Ohio State University

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke 20,000 for the first time.

Traders and investors cheered this historic high of the world’s most famous stock market index, which is composed of 30 of the biggest and best-performing American companies and is frequently used as a barometer of the strength of the economy.

Even though it took a little while, after several close calls in recent weeks, it’s hardly a surprise that the Dow hit this particular milestone. It and other major stock indexes like the Standard & Poor’s 500 have two key features that ensure that they will continually rise and break new zero-filled records: They ignore inflation and are heavily curated.

No inflation adjustment

The first reason why stock market indexes, like the Dow, rise over long periods of time is that the indexes are not adjusted for inflation.

Inflation is when overall prices increase. It is a modern occurrence in most major countries. When there’s inflation, everything costs more as time passes, including the price of shares of stock.

The Dow Jones index is calculated by adding up the non-adjusted stock prices of all 30 members and dividing by something known as the “Dow divisor,” which is continually adjusted to account for stock splits, spin offs and other changes. This divisor ensures historical continuity.

The importance of the long-term inflation in driving stock market indexes higher is seen by understanding the “rule of 70.” This rule shows how long it takes for the average price in the economy to double. For example, if something costs US$10 today, the rule of 70 shows how many years it will take for the price to reach $20.

To determine the number of years, divide 70 by the inflation rate stripped of its percentage sign. Details on the rule of 70 are discussed in chapter 12 of my textbook.

Since the turn of the 21st century, U.S. inflation has increased prices by roughly 2.2 percent per year. If prices continue to rise at this rate, then the typical price of most things in the U.S. will double roughly every 32 years (70 divided by 2.2). So if inflation were to persist at this rate, this means about three decades from now the Dow will hit 40,000, even if businesses sell the exact same number of cars, phones, movies, meals and all the other things available in the economy.

Underperformers are eliminated

The second reason why the Dow inevitably rises over long periods of time is that under performing companies are periodically removed from the index and replaced by companies that are performing better.

Replacing under performing companies that have a falling stock price, with companies that have a rising stock price ensures the index continues to climb over the long term.

Charles Dow, one of the founders of the Wall Street Journal newspaper, started the Dow Jones Industrial Average in May of 1886. His intention 120 years ago was not to create an index that regularly hit new highs. Instead, the goal was to give readers a single number to give them a quick understanding of how the stocks of the most important companies were faring.

Nevertheless, because the list of companies in the Dow has changed many times to eliminate under performing stocks, it is essentially designed, even if by accident, to climb ever higher.

The Dow for decades has been comprised of 30 stocks. Nevertheless, over its 120 year existence there have been 133 different companies on the list. The editors of the Wall Street Journal choose which companies are in the index and once a year, on average, add a new company to the list and drop an old one.

Since 2010, the Dow has included five new companies; Apple, Goldman Sachs, Nike, United Healthcare and Visa. To keep the list fixed at 30, five companies have been dropped: Alcoa, AT&T, Bank of America, Kraft Foods and Hewlett-Packard.

General Electric, or GE, is the only company that was both on the original 1886 list and included in the index today. Nevertheless, even this major company founded by Thomas Edison has not been on the list continuously. It was dropped in 1901 and then reinstated at the end of 1907.

Many famous companies in America were on the Dow and then were dropped before going bankrupt or drastically shrinking in size. Eastman Kodak was dropped in 2004, while Bethlehem Steel was removed in 1997, both only a few years before going bankrupt. The editors knocked off Sears Roebuck in 1999 and F.W. Woolworth in 1997 as people shifted away from buying items at department stores and five and dimes.

The periodic replacement of companies means the Dow operates like an actively managed mutual fund, in which humans pick companies that are expected to do well in the future. The Dow needs periodic human intervention. Without it, the list would slowly atrophy as companies die off or become less relevant to the overall economy.

Dow 40,000, here we come

In sum, the presence of inflation in the U.S. and the continued efforts of editors at the Wall Street Journal to replace lagging companies in the index with companies that have high-flying prospects and stock prices will always result in headlines every so often that trumpet “turn-of-the-odometer” milestones like 25,000 and 30,000.

The question is not whether the Dow will reach 40,000. The only question is when?

The Conversation

Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Communities plagued by uninsurance also suffer from breakdowns in trust, social connection

Applicants for insurance wait in Richmond, California in 2014. Eric Risberg/AP file photo.
Applicants for insurance wait in Richmond, California in 2014. Eric Risberg/AP file photo.

Tara McKay, Vanderbilt University

Dismantling the Affordable Care Act (ACA) without a replacement plan is projected to increase the nation’s uninsured population by 18 million in the first year after repeal and by 32 million in 2026, according to recent estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). As lawmakers and the American public consider repealing portions of the ACA, it is an important time to reflect on what limiting access to health insurance might mean for Americans and their communities. If a repeal occurs, not only individuals, but also their communities, could be affected.

Whether we like it or not, health insurance affects our lives in significant ways. Sometimes these effects are very direct, determining whether we can afford to see a doctor when we need to. At other times, health insurance affects us in less direct ways by shaping whether providers hire that extra nurse or relocate to a wealthier area of town.

One of the things we’ve paid a lot less attention to is whether the effects of health insurance go beyond things like health and costs to shape other aspects of our social lives. My new study with Stefan Timmermans of UCLA addresses this gap by examining the consequences of uninsurance for cohesion and trust in Los Angeles communities during the 2000s.

Using longitudinal data from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A. FANS), we find that people living in communities with lower levels of insurance are less likely to feel connected to and trust their neighbors, even after controlling for several other neighborhood and individual factors that might affect people’s perceptions of and engagement with their communities.

We also test whether broader access to health insurance through a policy like the ACA could strengthen communities over time. This analysis demonstrates that people’s perceptions of their neighbors and communities improve as more people gain access to insurance in their community.

Consequences beyond health care

How does this work?

When large groups of people don’t have health insurance, this places unique financial and organizational strains on individuals, providers and health care markets. Research demonstrates that a lack of access to health insurance negatively affects health, health care access and quality, utilization of preventative services and out-of-pocket costs for the uninsured.

These effects also frequently spill over to the insured, negatively affecting the health and out-of-pocket costs for people living or receiving care alongside large groups of uninsured. Such spillovers come about as providers try to lower their exposure to a large uninsured population by reducing, dropping or redistributing staff and services that are disproportionately used by the uninsured, such as emergency care.

These provider strategies also go on to affect access to health care, quality of care and trust in health care providers for everyone living in a community, not just the uninsured.

Given the particular pressures that uninsurance places on individuals, providers and health care markets, it’s not surprising that we find the consequences of uninsurance go beyond health and health care.

We specifically measured the consequences of living in a community with high levels of uninsurance on residents’ reports of social cohesion, or their feelings of trust, mutual obligation and reciprocity toward their neighbors. Moving from a community where almost everyone has health insurance to one where more than half are uninsured results in a 34 percent decrease in residents’ perceptions of social cohesion in their community, we found.

We tested many possible explanations for this decrease, including differences in the composition of these communities over time, but this result is persistent. There is a social cost for communities that carry a larger burden of uninsured. This 34 percent difference in social cohesion is a substantial difference that has important consequences for other individual and community outcomes pertaining to health, political engagement and more.

New tensions created in communities

There are two primary ways that a lack of health insurance might affect communities.

First, in battles over state and local budgets, attempts to cover the uninsured through the redistribution of new or existing funds may run into political barriers or be forced to compete with other public services such as education and law enforcement. These battles can create competing interests and goals within a community that contribute to the breakdown of social cohesiveness, trust and reciprocity among community members over time.

In case studies of programs intended to expand coverage to the uninsured in Birmingham, Alabama, and Alameda County (Oakland), California, debates around the provision of care for the uninsured became even more contentious because they intersected with racial and class divides that have historically limited access to insurance and health care institutions among African-Americans and Latinos. Sometimes, community institutions, like churches and schools, are able to develop their own programs to support the uninsured, with varying success.

Second, within communities, higher out-of-pocket costs to the uninsured and their families can exacerbate social and economic inequalities which promote class differentiation, social distance and community disengagement.

Uninsured people in Tennessee wait for the arrival of President Obama to speak about expansion of Medicaid in that state.
Mark Humphrey/AP

Importantly, some uninsured individuals feel this status very acutely, as an indicator that they don’t belong or matter to the broader community or society. When the uninsured do seek care, they frequently report experiencing poorer-quality care, discrimination and depersonalization, which they view as an assault on their personal dignity.

Taken together, these indirect pathways suggest that lack of access to health insurance matters not only for health and costs, but also for the cohesiveness and resilience of communities.

Can policies like the ACA strengthen communities?

Where local and state governments have made a concerted effort toward including marginal populations into the health care system, as in San Francisco and Massachusetts, we see promising results. Lawmakers, providers and patients are motivated by the importance they place on connectedness, collaboration and feelings of a shared fate.

In our study, we specifically look at how communities might have changed if an ACA-type expansion in insurance coverage had occurred in Los Angeles County during our survey period (2001 and 2007) using a difference-in-difference estimation. This technique takes into account trends in how feelings of trust and reciprocity among community members would have changed during this time period anyway, even without expanding access to health insurance.

To do this, we use individuals’ reports of their actual health insurance status when they were reinterviewed in 2007-2008 by L.A. FANS and estimate who would become eligible for Medicaid and for California state and federal subsidies to buy insurance in the individual marketplace under 2014 ACA eligibility criteria.

From www.shutterstock.com

We then used these estimates to see how residents’ feelings of trust and reciprocity might have changed if they and their neighbors had gained access to health insurance coverage under an ACA-type expansion in 2007.

We find that the differences between high insurance and low insurance communities on perceptions of social cohesion are significantly smaller when we impose an ACA-type intervention, suggesting that such an intervention could significantly improve individuals’ perceptions of social cohesion in their communities.

It is not yet clear how a repeal of ACA will affect communities. A repeal may undo any gains that communities have experienced over the past few years in terms of increased trust and reciprocity. These changes may take some time to be felt or may be very pronounced if individuals who stand to lose access to insurance through a repeal feel they are being singled out for exclusion.

What we do know is that prior to the implementation of the ACA, a lack of health insurance substantially undermined communities. As health policies increasingly contend with larger issues of social and economic inequality, we expect that health policies such as the ACA – and whatever comes next – will continue to have important consequences for communities that need to be considered alongside effects on health and costs.

The Conversation

Tara McKay, Assistant Professor, Vanderbilt University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Mind the gaps: Reducing hunger by improving yields on small farms

Soybean farmer in Malawi. IFPRI/Mitchell Maher via Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND
Soybean farmer in Malawi. IFPRI/Mitchell Maher via Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Paul West, University of Minnesota

One of the most urgent challenges we face in the next several decades is feeding a growing world population without irreparably damaging Earth’s land, air and water systems. Nearly 800 million people worldwide are undernourished today. The U.N.‘s Sustainable Development Goals call for ending hunger and achieving food security by 2030.

The world is making progress in reducing hunger, but we have further to go. The annual Global Hunger Index, produced by the International Food Policy Research Institute, scores nations based on the proportion of their total population that is undernourished and several metrics that focus on children. Since 2000, the GHI has decreased across all regions of the world, but 50 countries – mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – still have alarming or severe hunger rates.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/K5CHo/1/

At the Global Landscapes Initiative in the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment, our research focuses on increasing global food security while reducing harmful impacts from agriculture to Earth’s natural resources. We have found that one key strategy to combating food insecurity – lack of access to nutritious foods – is increasing food production on small farms.

There are tremendous opportunities to increase yields throughout South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing yields through new farming practices could triple maize production in sub-Saharan Africa and increase wheat and rice production in South Asia by about 50 percent. Gains on this scale could dramatically reduce hunger and food insecurity in some of the most vulnerable nations in the world.

The importance of small farms

The U.N. estimates that more than 70 percent of the world’s food-insecure people live in rural areas of developing countries where farming is typically the dominant land use and source of income. My colleague Leah Samberg recently led a study that combined household census data with satellite-derived land-cover data of croplands and pastures to map the average farm size in regions of the world dominated by smallholder farmers. In many countries with alarming and severe GHI scores, the average farm size is less than five hectares, or about 12 acres.

Small farms dominate South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where the hunger index scores are highest. These farms currently produce 41 percent of global calories from croplands, and the majority of crops that are essential for food security in many regions, including rice, cassava, groundnuts and millet.

So why is hunger prevalent in these same areas? The problem is that yield trends for the world’s major staple grains – wheat, rice and maize – have stagnated throughout developing regions.

To address yield gaps – the difference between the amount of food that land is producing and the amount it is capable of producing – we need to quantify them. EarthStat, a joint project of the GLI and the University of British Columbia’s Ramankutty Lab, provides global maps of yield gaps for 16 major crops that account for about 85 percent of all calories produced on croplands. Other valuable resources include the Global Yield Gap Atlas and IFPRI’s CELL5M database.

These global tools are useful for targeting policy and investments for broad strategies. But they need to be adapted for local issues, such as increasing access to seeds, fertilizer and markets.

Increasing yields and protecting the environment

Many institutions working with smallholder farmers have shown it is possible to increase yields and also make production more sustainable and profitable. For example, they have promoted direct seeding in rice fields rather than transplanting nursery-grown sprouts. This practice reduces labor costs and decreases the time required for plants to mature.

Another strategy, modified rice intensification, uses improved mechanization to transplant younger seedlings and use less water. A third strategy is to occasionally dry out rice fields, which reduces water use and increases availability of soil nutrients. These methods, which increase yields with less water use and labor, are becoming widely adopted in India and can be used in other rice-growing regions.

Creating change across millions of farms requires tremendous time investments to understand farmers’ needs and challenges and to gain their trust. There is currently no Silicon Valley-style approach to quickly “hack” food production on small farms.

But more gradual approaches can be very effective. The nonprofit One Acre Fund has helped over 400,000 farmers across six countries in Africa increase farm income by 55 percent by improving their access to credit for seeds and fertilizer and training them in farming techniques.

Key leverage points

We can achieve food security and also promote sustainable agriculture by focusing on a small set of leverage points in the global food system. The two highest-payoff strategies are halting deforestation and changing irrigation management in rice paddies.

Agriculture expansion is the leading global driver of tropical deforestation, which has tremendous impacts on biodiversity and accounts for about 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Every unit of tropical land cleared leads to nearly twice the carbon loss and produces half as much food as a comparable unit in temperate zones. The stark trade-off occurs because lush tropical forests store lots of carbon and the yields gaps are commonly high. This means that increasing yields on existing tropical farmlands is much better for the environment than clearing new land for agriculture.

Many agriculture and development experts believe Africa is overdue for a Green Revolution, similar to the focused research and investments that produced dramatic yield increases in Asia and Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s. But agricultural expansion will likely be part of such an effort in Africa.

This will occur partly to produce more staple crops like cassava and sorghum. Currently, however, global markets for cash commodities like sugarcane are driving land grabs, reducing available farmland and using much more water than staple crops. Many institutions are working to improve seed varieties and soil management techniques to improve yields of staple crops, but these investments are small compared to the money going toward production of cash commodities.

Better irrigation management on rice farms is especially important in Asia, where rice is the main source of calories for many people. Growing it in flooded paddies produces large quantities of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Approaches such as the techniques mentioned above can maintain or improve yields and reduce water consumption, and even small changes can produce large reductions in overall GHG emissions without reducing rice production.

Farmers plant rice in a paddy field in Yogyakarta, Java, Indonesia.
IFPRI/IanMasias via Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Beyond the farm

Sustainably increasing food production is an important piece of the puzzle, but it does not necessarily ensure that people will have constant access to food or will be well-nourished. As one example, studies have shown that farm households are more likely to have enough food to feed their families if they earn off-farm income in addition to raising crops.

An international group of food and nutrition scholars proposed a new research agenda in late 2016 that shifts the emphasis from calories – that is, feeding people – to nourishment. In their view, we need to organize an international effort as large as global campaigns against HIV/AIDs or smoking to remake global food systems so that healthy diets are available to everyone.

It would be overly optimistic to say that eliminating hunger is within reach, but we have the knowledge and tools to achieve this goal. The biggest breakthroughs likely will come through integrated strategies for producing and increasing access to nutritious food.

The Conversation

Paul West, Co-Director and Lead Scientist of the Global Landscapes Initiative, Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Today’s One Minute Action

Today's One Minute Action
Today’s One Minute Action

 

We stood in solidarity. And now we work.
Send ONE email addressed to siggerudk@gao.gov, minnellit@gao.gov, congrel@gao.gov
Subject line: Investigation of Donald Trump’s financial concerns
Dear Ms. Siggerud and Mr. Minnelli,
I’m writing in support of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s and Rep. Elijah Cummings’s request for an investigation into Donald Trump’s finances. Neither Mr. Trump nor his family has drawn a clear line between his Presidency and his company, which raises serious questions about how he intends to avoid conflicts of interest as President. An investigation is essential immediately.
Sincerely,
— GAO = U.S. Government Accountability Office. Tim Minelli and Katherine Siggerud = officials at the GAO.

DIY Disaster Preparation Bucket

This emergency kit comes from AlfredoEinsteino on Reddit
This emergency kit comes from AlfredoEinsteino on Reddit

This emergency kit comes from AlfredoEinsteino on Reddit – who we will call AE – and is published with his permission. At the end of this post is a list of every single item you see here so you can make this exact emergency kit for yourself. emergency-kit-5-gallon-bucket Keep in mind that this kit is one person’s collection of items that work best for him. It’s the right kit for AE but may not yet be the perfect kit for you. You should always tailor your emergency kit around what’s likely in your area and your family’s needs.

Organizing the 5 Gallon Emergency Kit

AE has divided his emergency kit into a few broad categories to keep his supplies organized and well rounded:

  • General Supplies
  • Hygiene Supplies
  • First Aid Kit

Every item is listed in detail in a printed contents document. On the back is a list of important phone numbers such as relatives, insurance companies, local law enforcement, fire department, etc.

emergency-kit-5-gallon-bucket-list
emergency-kit-5-gallon-bucket-list

 

Did you catch the line second from the top? It’s the most important detail on the loadout document – the date. This helps you remember when the bucket was put together so you can keep track of all your expiration dates. A good emergency kit can easily last 5 years or more, but not everything inside will be good for that long and may need to be replaced periodically. Again, the EpiPen example – they only last about 20 months from the day they are made. Replacing an expired EpiPen could be a life or death matter!

Shopping List: 5 Gallon Emergency Kit

The rest of this article will be a list of the contents of the bucket. You can download this list in an editable Word format by clicking here: 5 Gallon Bucket Emergency Kit It may be instructive to compare this list with the much higher calorie emergency kit from Mayday disaster preparation company. Humans usually need at least 2,000 calories every single day – which adds up really fast. Depending on your anticipated needs, you may want one or several food-geared buckets in addition to your emergency supply kit. I’ve linked some of the more unusual items that you might not find at your neighborhood hardware store.

General Supplies

general-emergency-kit-supplies
general-emergency-kit-supplies
  • glow sticks (12 hrs)
  • flashlight
  • liquid candle
  • matchbooks
  • mylar thermal blankets
  • hand warmers
  • AM/FM radio
  • whistle and lanyard
  • sewing kit
  • blank notebook
  • pencils
  • extra batteries (for flashlight and radio)
  • zip ties
  • P-38 can opener
  • trash bags
  • N95 dust masks
  • duct tape
  • small tarp
  • paracord
  • safety goggles
  • split leather gloves
  • Hygiene Supplies
Hygiene supplies suited to your needs
Hygiene supplies suited to your needs

Hygiene supplies are packaged inside their own separate bag. These basic supplies should look familiar – it’s similar to a toiletries bag you might take on vacation. hygiene-supply-kit

  • bar soap
  • kleenex
  • floss
  • baby shampoo
  • hand lotion
  • sunscreen
  • toothpaste
  • toothbrushes
  • feminine hygiene pads
  • comb
  • toilet paper
  • washcloths

 

First Aid Kit

first-aid-kit-contents-1024x605
first-aid-kit-contents

The first aid box is packaged with a list of contents taped to the inside of the lid. Moist towelettes and antiseptic towelettes and latex gloves kept on top so you can clean your hands before digging through supplies.

  • basic first-aid guide
  • moist towelettes
  • antiseptic towelettes
  • latex gloves
  • acetaminophen (Tylenol)
  • ibuprofen (Advil)
  • aspirin
  • diphenhydramine (Benadryl)
  • loperamide (Imodium A-D)
  • burn cream
  • sting relief towelettes
  • hydrocortisone cream
  • triple antibiotic ointment (Neosporin)
  • cough drops
  • earplugs
  • instant ice pack
  • tweezers
  • nail clippers
  • scissors
  • digital thermometer
  • cotton balls
  • waterproof adhesive tape
  • gauze rolls
  • gauze pads
  • moleskin
  • band-aids
  • butterfly bandages
  • ace bandage
  • triangular bandage
  • hand sanitizer
  • Q-tips
  • petroleum jelly
  • RAD sticker (personal radiation dosimeter)
  • potassium iodide (radiation emergency thyroid blocker)

Additional Items Suggested by You

These pieces of kit weren’t included in the example bucket build above but are listed here by popular demand.

Lifestraw ultracompact Water Filter
24-inch Pocket Chainsaw
3600 calorie ration bars with 5 year shelf life
4-in-1 Emergency Gas & Water Shutoff Tool
12,000 Strike Firestarter and whistle
Hand-crank Flashlight
Everstryke Match (15000 uses)
Foldable Drybags
Foldable credit card knife

Source: Five Gallon Ideas  http://fivegallonideas.com/emergency-kit/

See also: more ideas for prepping with 5 gallon buckets.